Analysis
Martin Hinz
2022-04-04
Preface
Running through the analysis can take a long time, especially the Bayesian model. We point out the long runtimes again at the appropriate place.
Loading the necessary libraries
For this analysis we need the following libraries:
library(tidyverse)
library(ggdist)
library(reshape2)
library(here)
library(RcppRoll)
library(sf)
library(mapview)
library(vegan)
library(neotoma)
library(analogue)
library(rcarbon)
library(doParallel)
library(nimble)
library(coda)
library(MCMCvis)
library(fmcmc)If you have not yet installed these libraries (and receive a corresponding error message), please install them!
For the aorist analysis we also use the package aoristAAR, which is not available on CRAN, but would have to be installed directly from GitHub:
if(!require('devtools')) install.packages('devtools')
library(devtools)
install_github('ISAAKiel/aoristAAR')
require(aoristAAR)Data collection
The data used in this analysis are the following proxies obtained from the following sources:
An openness index generated by a PCA of five pollen profiles in the Swiss Plateau from the neotoma database (Williams et al. 2018).
14C sum calibration, data sets from the XRONOS database as well as from the unpublished PhD thesis of Julian Laabs [@laabs2019] and from the data collection of [@martínez-grau2021].
Sites from the database of the Cantonal Archaeology as the basis of an aoristic analysis
The number of dated fell phases at lakeshore settlements in the Three Lakes Region from the doctoral thesis by Julian Laabs [@laabs2019].
Openness index
We start with the openness index, as this will set the spatial framework for our analyses. The five pollen profiles are the following:
pollen_locations <- read.csv(file = normalizePath(file.path(here(), "data","raw_data", "pollen_locations.csv")))
pollen_locations## neotoma_id name lat lng
## 1 26632 Le Loclat 47.01867 6.996690
## 2 46280 Moossee 47.02139 7.483806
## 3 40955 Burgaschisee 47.16969 7.668230
## 4 44723 Soppensee 47.09076 8.080880
## 5 4382 Rotsee 47.07556 8.325556We can also map these. To do this, we first transform the coordinate system into the Swiss national coordinate system, and then display them:
pollen_locations.sf <- st_as_sf(pollen_locations,
coords = c("lng", "lat"), # coordinate columns
crs = 4326) # coordinate references system in epsg))
pollen_locations.sf.lv95 <- st_transform(pollen_locations.sf, crs = 2056)
pollenmap <- tempfile(fileext = ".png")
mapshot(
mapview(pollen_locations.sf),
file = pollenmap
)
img <- magick::image_read(pollenmap)
plot(img)
We download the data from neotoma:
pollen_data <- get_download(pollen_locations$neotoma_id)## Warning:
## There were multiple entries for Lycopodium tablets
## get_download has mapped aliases for the taxa in the taxon.list.## Warning:
## There were multiple entries for Abies alba
## get_download has mapped aliases for the taxa in the taxon.list.
## There were multiple entries for Juniperus
## get_download has mapped aliases for the taxa in the taxon.list.
## There were multiple entries for Lycopodium tablets
## get_download has mapped aliases for the taxa in the taxon.list.
## There were multiple entries for Nymphaea
## get_download has mapped aliases for the taxa in the taxon.list.## Warning:
## There were multiple entries for Abies alba
## get_download has mapped aliases for the taxa in the taxon.list.
## There were multiple entries for Lycopodium tablets
## get_download has mapped aliases for the taxa in the taxon.list.
## There were multiple entries for Nymphaea
## get_download has mapped aliases for the taxa in the taxon.list.
## There were multiple entries for Pteridophyta (monolete)
## get_download has mapped aliases for the taxa in the taxon.list.## Warning:
## There were multiple entries for Lycopodium tablets
## get_download has mapped aliases for the taxa in the taxon.list.
## There were multiple entries for Pinus
## get_download has mapped aliases for the taxa in the taxon.list.Then we load a few help scripts which can be found under “code/neotoma_helpers.R”.
source(file = normalizePath(file.path(here(), "code", "neotoma_helpers.R")))Now we filter the data sets so that we only retain the pollen data that record “NISP”.
pollen_data_filtered <- filter_by_unit(filter_by_element(pollen_data, "pollen"), "NISP")
class(pollen_data_filtered) <- append(class(pollen_data_filtered), "download_list")Then we convert the NISP into percentages:
pollen_data_comp <- transform_to_percent(pollen_data_filtered)Furthermore, we need a (handwritten) concordance list for the taxa names:
common_names <- read.csv(file = normalizePath(file.path(here(), "data","raw_data", "species.csv")), row.names = 1)
common_names## name_orig name_joint
## 1 Abies Abies
## 2 Abies alba Abies
## 3 Acer Acer
## 4 Achillea Achillea
## 5 Achillea-type Achillea
## 6 Allium Allium
## 7 Allium-type Allium
## 8 Alnus Alnus
## 9 Alnus glutinosa-type Alnus
## 10 Alnus viridis Alnus
## 11 Amaranthaceae Amaranthaceae
## 12 Amaranthaceae-type Amaranthaceae
## 13 Anemone nemorosa Anemone
## 14 Anemone nemorosa-type Anemone
## 15 Anemone-type Anemone
## 16 Anthemideae Anthemideae
## 17 Apiaceae Apiaceae
## 18 Apiaceae undiff. Apiaceae
## 19 Arctium Arctium
## 20 Artemisia Artemisia
## 21 Aster-type Aster
## 22 Asteraceae Asteraceae
## 23 Asteroideae Asteroideae
## 24 Avena-type Cerealia
## 25 Betula Betula
## 26 Betula nana Betula
## 27 Betula pubescens-type Betula
## 28 Bistorta officinalis Bistorta
## 29 Bistorta officinalis-type Bistorta
## 30 Bistorta officinalis/B. vivipara Bistorta
## 31 Bistorta vivipara Bistorta
## 32 Brassicaceae Brassicaceae
## 33 Bupleurum-type Bupleurum
## 34 Buxus Buxus
## 35 Buxus sempervirens Buxus
## 36 Calluna Calluna
## 37 Calluna vulgaris Calluna
## 38 Caltha palustris Calluna
## 39 Caltha-type Caltha
## 40 Campanula Campanulaceae
## 41 Campanulaceae Campanulaceae
## 42 Cannabaceae Cannabaceae
## 43 Cannabaceae sensu stricto Cannabaceae
## 44 Cannabis sativa Cannabaceae
## 45 Carduus Carduus
## 46 Carduus-type Carduus
## 47 Carpinus Carpinus
## 48 Carpinus betulus Carpinus
## 49 Carum-type Carum
## 50 Caryophyllaceae Caryophyllaceae
## 51 Caryophyllaceae undiff. Caryophyllaceae
## 52 Castanea Castanea
## 53 Castanea sativa Castanea
## 54 Centaurea Centaurea
## 55 Centaurea cyanus Centaurea
## 56 Centaurea montana-type Centaurea
## 57 Centaurea nigra Centaurea
## 58 Centaurea nigra-type Centaurea
## 59 Centaurea scabiosa Centaurea
## 60 Centaurea scabiosa-type Centaurea
## 61 Centaurium Centaurium
## 62 Cerastium Cerastium
## 63 Cerastium-type Cerastium
## 64 cf. Saxifraga oppositifolia-type Saxifraga
## 65 Chaerophyllum-type Chaerophyllum
## 66 Chamaenerion angustifolium Chamaenerion
## 67 Cichorioideae Cichorioideae
## 68 Cirsium-type Cirsium
## 69 Cladium mariscus Cladium
## 70 Clematis Clematis
## 71 Cornus mas Cornus
## 72 Cornus sanguinea Cornus
## 73 Cornus undiff. Cornus
## 74 Corydalis cava-type Corydalis
## 75 Corylus Corylus
## 76 Corylus avellana Corylus
## 77 Crepis Crepis
## 78 Cyperaceae Cyperaceae
## 79 Daucus carota Daucus
## 80 Daucus-type Daucus
## 81 Dianthus-type Dianthus
## 82 Dipsacus Dipsacus
## 83 Dryas octopetala Dryas
## 84 Dryas-type Dryas
## 85 Echium Echium
## 86 Ephedra distachya Ephedra
## 87 Ephedra distachya-type Ephedra
## 88 Ephedra fragilis Ephedra
## 89 Ephedra fragilis-type Ephedra
## 90 Epilobium Epilobium
## 91 Erica Erica
## 92 Ericaceae Ericaceae
## 93 Ericaceae undiff. Ericaceae
## 94 Eryngium Eryngium
## 95 Fabaceae Fabaceae
## 96 Fabaceae undiff. Fabaceae
## 97 Faboideae Faboideae
## 98 Fagopyrum Fagopyrum
## 99 Fagus Fagus
## 100 Fagus sylvatica Fagus
## 101 Falcaria vulgaris Falcaria
## 102 Falcaria-type Falcaria
## 103 Fallopia convolvulus Fallopia
## 104 Filipendula Filipendula
## 105 Frangula Frangula
## 106 Frangula alnus Frangula
## 107 Fraxinus Fraxinus
## 108 Fraxinus excelsior Fraxinus
## 109 Fraxinus excelsior-type Fraxinus
## 110 Gentiana Gentiana
## 111 Geraniaceae Geraniaceae
## 112 Geranium Geranium
## 113 Geum Geum
## 114 Geum-type Geum
## 115 Gnaphalium-type Gnaphalium
## 116 Gypsophila repens-type Gypsophila
## 117 Gypsophila-type Gypsophila
## 118 Hedera Hedera
## 119 Hedera helix Hedera
## 120 Helianthemum Helianthemum
## 121 Heracleum Heracleum
## 122 Hippocrepis-type Hippocrepis
## 123 Hippophaë Hippophae
## 124 Hippophaë rhamnoides Hippophae
## 125 Hordeum-type Cerealia
## 126 Humulus Humulus
## 127 Hypericum Hypericum
## 128 Hypericum perforatum-type Hypericum
## 129 Ilex aquifolium Ilex
## 130 Iris pseudacorus-type Iris
## 131 Jasione Jasione
## 132 Juglans Juglans
## 133 Juglans regia Juglans
## 134 Juncus Juncus
## 135 Juniperus Juniperus
## 136 Juniperus-type Juniperus
## 137 Knautia Knautia
## 138 Lamiaceae Lamiaceae
## 139 Lamiaceae undiff. Lamiaceae
## 140 Lamium-type Lamium
## 141 Larix decidua Larix
## 142 Lavandula Lavandula
## 143 Ligusticum mutellina Ligusticum
## 144 Ligustrum Ligustrum
## 145 Liliaceae Liliaceae
## 146 Liliaceae undiff. Liliaceae
## 147 Liliaceae-type Liliaceae
## 148 Linum usitatissimum-type Linum
## 149 Lonicera xylosteum-type Lonicera
## 150 Lotus Lotus
## 151 Lotus-type Lotus
## 152 Lygeum spartum Lygeum
## 153 Lysimachia vulgaris-type Lysimachia
## 154 Lythrum Lythrum
## 155 Malvaceae Malvaceae
## 156 Malvaceae sensu stricto Malvaceae
## 157 Mentha-type Mentha
## 158 Menyanthes trifoliata Menyanthes
## 159 Mercurialis Mercurialis
## 160 Mercurialis annua Mercurialis
## 161 Mercurialis perennis Mercurialis
## 162 Mercurialis perennis-type Mercurialis
## 163 Muscari-type Muscari
## 164 Myriophyllum Myriophyllum
## 165 Myriophyllum spicatum Myriophyllum
## 166 Myriophyllum spicatum-type Myriophyllum
## 167 Nuphar Nuphar
## 168 Nymphaea Nymphaea
## 169 Odontites Odontites
## 170 Odontites-type Odontites
## 171 Oenanthe Oenanthe
## 172 Olea europaea Olea
## 173 Oxalis acetosella Oxalis
## 174 Papaver Papaver
## 175 Papaver rhoeas-type Papaver
## 176 Parnassia Parnassia
## 177 Pedicularis Pedicularis
## 178 Persicaria amphibia Persicaria
## 179 Persicaria maculosa-type Persicaria
## 180 Peucedanum-type Peucedanum
## 181 Picea Picea
## 182 Picea abies Picea
## 183 Pimpinella major-type Pimpinella
## 184 Pimpinella-type Pimpinella
## 185 Pinus Pinus
## 186 Pinus cembra Pinus
## 187 Pinus sylvestris-type Pinus
## 188 Pistacia Pistacia
## 189 Plantago alpina Plantago
## 190 Plantago alpina-type Plantago
## 191 Plantago lanceolata Plantago
## 192 Plantago lanceolata-type Plantago
## 193 Plantago major Plantago
## 194 Plantago major-type Plantago
## 195 Plantago major/P. media Plantago
## 196 Plantago major/P. media-type Plantago
## 197 Plantago media Plantago
## 198 Plantago media-type Plantago
## 199 Plantago montana Plantago
## 200 Plantago sp. Plantago
## 201 Plantago undiff. Plantago
## 202 Plumbaginaceae Plumbaginaceae
## 203 Poaceae Poaceae
## 204 Poaceae (Cerealia-type) Cerealia
## 205 Poaceae (Cerealia-type) undiff. Cerealia
## 206 Poaceae (Cerealia) Cerealia
## 207 Polygonaceae Polygonaceae
## 208 Polygonum aviculare Polygonum
## 209 Populus Populus
## 210 Potamogeton Potamogeton
## 211 Potamogeton-type Potamogeton
## 212 Potentilla-type Potentilla
## 213 Poterium sanguisorba Poterium
## 214 Prunella-type Prunella
## 215 Prunus-type Prunus
## 216 Quercus Quercus
## 217 Quercus coccifera Quercus
## 218 Quercus ilex-type Quercus
## 219 Quercus robur-type Quercus
## 220 Ranunculaceae Ranunculaceae
## 221 Ranunculus acris-type Ranunculus
## 222 Ranunculus sect. Batrachium Ranunculus
## 223 Ranunculus-type Ranunculus
## 224 Rhamnus Rhamnus
## 225 Rhamnus-type Rhamnus
## 226 Rhinanthus Rhinanthus
## 227 Rhinanthus-type Rhinanthus
## 228 Rhynchospora Rhynchospora
## 229 Ribes Ribes
## 230 Rosa Rosa
## 231 Rosaceae Rosaceae
## 232 Rosaceae (trees) Rosaceae
## 233 Rosaceae (trees) undiff. Rosaceae
## 234 Rubiaceae Rubiaceae
## 235 Rubus Rubus
## 236 Rumex Rumex
## 237 Rumex acetosa-type Rumex
## 238 Rumex acetosella-type Rumex
## 239 Rumex-type Rumex
## 240 Salix Salix
## 241 Sambucus nigra Sambucus
## 242 Sambucus nigra-type Sambucus
## 243 Sambucus racemosa Sambucus
## 244 Sanguisorba minor-type Sanguisorba
## 245 Sanguisorba officinalis Sanguisorba
## 246 Sanguisorba officinalis-type Sanguisorba
## 247 Saxifraga aizoides-type Saxifraga
## 248 Saxifraga granulata-type Saxifraga
## 249 Saxifragaceae Saxifragaceae
## 250 Scleranthus Scleranthus
## 251 Scorzonera-type Scorzonera
## 252 Scrophulariaceae Scrophulariaceae
## 253 Secale Cerealia
## 254 Sedum Sedum
## 255 Sedum-type Sedum
## 256 Senecio-type Senecio
## 257 Silene dioica Silene
## 258 Silene dioica-type Silene
## 259 Silene vulgaris Silene
## 260 Silene vulgaris-type Silene
## 261 Solanum Solanum
## 262 Sorbus Sorbus
## 263 Sorbus-type Sorbus
## 264 Sparganium Sparganium
## 265 Sparganium-type Sparganium
## 266 Spermatophyta Spermatophyta
## 267 Spermatophyta undiff. (cf. upland herbs) Spermatophyta
## 268 Spermatophyta undiff. (upland herbs) Spermatophyta
## 269 Succisa Succisa
## 270 Taxus Taxus
## 271 Taxus baccata Taxus
## 272 Thalictrum Thalictrum
## 273 Tilia Tilia
## 274 Tilia cordata Tilia
## 275 Torilis arvensis Torilis
## 276 Torilis arvensis-type Torilis
## 277 Torilis japonica Torilis
## 278 Torilis japonica-type Torilis
## 279 Trapa Trapa
## 280 Trapa natans Trapa
## 281 Trifolium Trifolium
## 282 Trifolium pratense-type Trifolium
## 283 Trifolium repens-type Trifolium
## 284 Trifolium-type Trifolium
## 285 Triticum-type Cerealia
## 286 Trollius Trollius
## 287 Tussilago farfara Tussilago
## 288 Typha Typha
## 289 Typha latifolia Typha
## 290 Typha latifolia-type Typha
## 291 Ulmus Ulmus
## 292 Urtica Urtica
## 293 Urtica dioica Urtica
## 294 Urticaceae Urticaceae
## 295 Utricularia Utricularia
## 296 Vaccinium-type Vaccinium
## 297 Valeriana Valeriana
## 298 Valeriana dioica-type Valeriana
## 299 Valeriana officinalis-type Valeriana
## 300 Valeriana-type Valeriana
## 301 Valerianoideae Valerianoideae
## 302 Viburnum Viburnum
## 303 Viburnum opulus-type Viburnum
## 304 Violaceae Violaceae
## 305 Viscum Viscum
## 306 Viscum album Viscum
## 307 Vitis Vitis
## 308 Zea mays ZeaWith this concordance table we combine the species with respect to their genus:
pollen_data_comp <- aggregate_by_joint_name(pollen_data_comp, common_names = common_names)Now we can combine the individual pollen profiles into an overall table, where each row represents a sample:
all_output <- suppressWarnings(neotoma::compile_downloads(pollen_data_comp))We restrict the data set to the Holocene so that we no longer have the pre-Holocene developments in the principal component analysis:
timeframe <- c(-7000,-1000)
all_output <- subset(all_output, 1950-age > timeframe[1] & 1950-age < timeframe[2])Then we extract the actual data:
all_data <- all_output[,11:ncol(all_output)]
all_data[is.na(all_data)] <- 0We then filter the data. Only those taxa are considered which are present in at least 1/3 of all data series:
all_data <- all_data[ , colSums(all_data) != 0]
all_data <- all_data[,colSums(all_data>0)>(nrow(all_data)/3)]In addition, only those with an average frequency greater than 0.1% are included:
all_data <- all_data[,colMeans(all_data)>0.1]However, we add the cerealia back in, regardless of their frequency:
if(!("Cerealia" %in% colnames(all_data)))
{
all_data <- data.frame(all_data, Cerealia = all_output[,"Cerealia"])
}These data can now be evaluated by means of a principal component analysis:
res.pca <- rda(all_data, scale = TRUE)
biplot(res.pca, type="text")
This calculation already shows the familiar structure that we have the known open land indicators at one end of the spectrum and the forest species (tree pollen) at the other. However, the result is also influenced by a gradient which has nothing to do with the effect we are interested in: The immigration of beech. To eliminate this gradient, we use a partial RDA in which only the residuals for Fagus are evaluated:
res.pca <- rda(all_data ~ Condition(Fagus), data=all_data, scale = TRUE)
biplot(res.pca, type="text")## Warning in arrows(0, 0, g$species[, 1] * arrlen, g$species[, 2] * arrlen, :
## zero-length arrow is of indeterminate angle and so skipped
From this principal component analysis, we now extract the first dimension as the openness index, and supplement it with the datings of the individual samples. In doing so, we ensure that open land indicators end up on the positive side of the result vector:
orientation <- sign(scores(res.pca)$species["Cerealia",1])
res.open <- data.frame(scores(res.pca, choices = 1, display = "si")*orientation)
colnames(res.open) <- "score"
res.open$age <- all_output$age
res.open$site <- all_output$site.name
ggplot(res.open) + geom_line(aes(x = 1950-age, y = score, color = site))
The individual profiles show a very similar development over time. We now summarise the common trend and smooth it with a 50-year moving window. For this, however, we first have to interpolate shared points in time, which we do via a linear approximation:
sw <- 50
full_range <- full_seq(res.open$age, 1)
res.open.interpolated <- by(res.open, res.open$site, function(x) approx(x$age,x$score, full_range)$y)
res.open.interpolated <- data.frame(do.call(cbind, res.open.interpolated))
res.open.interpolated$age <- full_range
res.open.interpolated <- melt(res.open.interpolated, id.vars=c("age"))
res.open.interpolated$site <- res.open.interpolated$variable
res.open.interpolated$variable <- NULL
res.open_smoothed <- res.open.interpolated %>%
group_by(site) %>%
# RcppRoll::roll_mean() is written in C++ for speed
mutate(moving_mean = roll_mean(value, sw, fill = NA, na.rm = TRUE))
res.open_smoothed$value<-NULL
res.open_smoothed <- na.omit(res.open_smoothed)Then we pick every 50th date:
res.open_smoothed <- res.open_smoothed[res.open_smoothed$age %in%
seq(from=1000,
to=10000, by=50),]
ggplot(res.open_smoothed,aes(x=1950-age,y=moving_mean)) +
geom_point(aes(color=site), alpha =.5) +
geom_smooth(span = 0.05, color = "black") +
scale_x_continuous(breaks=seq(timeframe[1],timeframe[2],200), limits = timeframe) +
labs(y = "Openness score [PCA]",x = "Date",colour = "Sites") +
theme_minimal() +
theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1))## `geom_smooth()` using method = 'loess' and formula 'y ~ x'
Finally, we calculate the average of all profiles as the final supra-regional openness index.
res.open_final <- res.open_smoothed %>%
group_by(age) %>%
mutate(mean=mean(moving_mean),
sd = sd(moving_mean)) %>%
select(age,mean,sd) %>%
unique() %>% arrange(desc(age))
ggplot(res.open_final,aes(x=1950-age)) +
geom_line(aes(y=mean)) +
geom_segment(aes(y=mean-sd, yend =mean+sd, xend=1950-age), alpha = .25)
14C Summenkalibration
The data set for the 14C sum calibration is composed of the above-mentioned sources.
c14 <- read.csv(file = normalizePath(file.path(here(), "data","raw_data", "14c_swiss_plateau.csv")))We can show this on the map:
c14map <- tempfile(fileext = ".png")
mapshot(
mapview(st_as_sf(c14,
coords = c("lng", "lat"),
crs = 4326),layer.name = "14C Data"
),
file = c14map
)
img <- magick::image_read(c14map)
plot(img)
Next, we calibrate the 14C data using rcarbon:
c14.calibrated <- calibrate(x = c14$bp, errors = c14$std, verbose = F)Subsequently, we perform the sum calibration, whereby we perform a binning at the level of the sites:
sumcal <- spd(c14.calibrated, timeRange = 1950-timeframe, bins = c14$site, runm = sw, verbose = F)Below is the visualisation of the sum calibration:
plot(1950-sumcal$grid$calBP, sumcal$grid$PrDens,type="l", main = paste0("n=", length(c14.calibrated)))
Finally, we extract the values every 50 years:
res.sumcal <- sumcal$grid[sumcal$grid$calBP %in%
seq(from=1000,
to=10000, by=50),]Aoristic Site Count
The third proxy is the aoristic sum of the number of sites from the cantonal archaeology database. For these, we have obscured the coordinates to avoid the well-known problems that can arise from clear site coordinates.
sites <- read.csv(file = normalizePath(file.path(here(), "data","raw_data", "site_data_fuzzy.csv")))We can depict this on the map:
sitesmap <- tempfile(fileext = ".png")
mapshot(
mapview(st_as_sf(sites,
coords = c("LV03_Rechtswert_fuzzy", "LV03_Hochwert_fuzzy"),
crs = 21781),
layer.name = "Sites"
),
file = sitesmap
)
img <- magick::image_read(sitesmap)
plot(img)
The dates come in two categories, rough and very rough We use the rough datings where they are available. Where they are not, we fall back on the very rough dates. But first we load the concordance table:
chrono_rough <- read.csv(file = normalizePath(
file.path(here(), "data","raw_data", "chrono_rough.csv")
),
row.names = 1)
chrono_vrough <- read.csv(file = normalizePath(
file.path(here(), "data","raw_data", "chrono_very_rough.csv")
),
row.names = 1)Next, we prepare the beginning and end as a column:
sites$begin <- NA
sites$end <- NAAnd then we first fill these columns with the data from the very rough dating:
for(i in 1:nrow(chrono_vrough)){
this_phase <- chrono_vrough[i,]
sites$begin[sites$chrono_very_rough == this_phase[,1]] <- this_phase$dat_begin
sites$end[sites$chrono_very_rough == this_phase[,1]] <- this_phase$dat_end
}Where available, we overwrite the very rough dating with the rough dating:
for(i in 1:nrow(chrono_rough)){
this_phase <- chrono_rough[i,]
sites$begin[sites$chrono_rough == this_phase[,1]] <- this_phase$dat_begin
sites$end[sites$chrono_rough == this_phase[,1]] <- this_phase$dat_end
}However, this does not allow for a very precise dating:
table(sites$begin)##
## -10000 -6000 -5000 -4500 -3500 -2750 -2200 -1550 -1300
## 2520 11 11 219 250 223 195 223 669Nevertheless, we next use the aorist sum as a mapping of the expected value for simultaneously existing settlements:
res.aorist <- aorist(sites, from = "begin", to = "end", method = "weight")
res.aorist$age <- 1950-res.aorist$date
res.aorist <- subset(res.aorist, date >= timeframe[1] & date <= timeframe[2])Again, the curve of the proxy is plotted here also:
plot(res.aorist$date, res.aorist$sum,type="l", main = paste0("n=", nrow(sites)))
Once more, we extract the values every 50 years:
res.aorist <- res.aorist[res.aorist$age %in%
seq(from=1000,
to=10000, by=50),]Dendro Dated Settlements
This year-by-year dataset maps the number of lakeshore settlements in the Three Lakes Region. Details can be found in the publication by (Laabs 2019). To match the resolution of the other datasets, this dataset is also sampled at 50-year intervals, and smoothed accordingly beforehand using a moving average.
First we load the data:
lss <- read.csv(file = normalizePath(file.path(here(), "data","raw_data", "dendro_years.csv")))Then we complete the data set so that it covers the entire period under consideration:
lss <- rbind(data.frame(date=-7050:min(lss$date)-1,n_settlements=0),
lss,
data.frame(date=max(lss$date)+1:-1,n_settlements=0))Finally, we run a moving average over it with the same window as for the other data sets:
res.lss <- lss %>%
mutate(moving_mean = roll_mean(n_settlements, sw, fill = NA, na.rm = TRUE))Here is yet another plot of the resulting curve:
plot(res.lss$date, res.lss$moving_mean,type="l")
Picking the data points every 50 years again:
res.lss <- res.lss[res.lss$date %in% seq(from=timeframe[1],
to=timeframe[2], by=50),
]
res.lss$age <- 1950-res.lss$dateCombining the proxies
Thus we have all proxies available, and can display them (scaled) all together:
ggplot() +
geom_line(data = res.open_final, aes(x = 1950-age, y = scale(mean)), col="darkgreen", alpha = 0.75) +
geom_line(data = res.sumcal, aes(x = 1950-calBP, y = scale(PrDens)), col="red", alpha = 0.75) +
geom_line(data = res.aorist, aes(x = date, y = scale(sum)), col="gray", alpha = 0.75) +
geom_line(data = res.lss, aes(x = date, y = scale(moving_mean)), col="brown", alpha = 0.75) +
scale_colour_manual(values = c("darkgreen", "red", "gray", "brown"),
labels = c("Openness Indicator", "Sum Calibration", "Aoristic Sum", "Dendro Dated Settlements")
)
We merge the dataset and restrict it to our observation window:
all_proxies <- merge(res.sumcal, res.open_final, by.x = "calBP", by.y = "age") %>%
merge(res.aorist, by.x = "calBP", by.y = "age") %>%
merge(res.lss, by.x = "calBP", by.y = "age") %>%
select(calBP, PrDens, mean, sum, moving_mean) %>%
rename(age = calBP, sumcal = PrDens, openness = mean, aoristic_sum = sum, dendro = moving_mean) %>%
filter(age < 8000 & age > 3000)
all_proxies## age sumcal openness aoristic_sum dendro
## 1 3050 0.066822335 0.208384980 1.5927066 0.00
## 2 3100 0.074485506 0.242881761 1.5927066 0.00
## 3 3150 0.076114100 0.281868030 1.5927066 0.00
## 4 3200 0.079103652 0.290201574 1.5927066 0.02
## 5 3250 0.076607414 0.340102162 1.5927066 0.00
## 6 3300 0.077399806 0.343925688 1.1476075 0.00
## 7 3350 0.082184602 0.308968436 1.1476075 0.00
## 8 3400 0.069906533 0.314034077 1.1476075 0.00
## 9 3450 0.072067256 0.344624229 1.1476075 0.00
## 10 3500 0.086024535 0.280680369 1.1476075 0.10
## 11 3550 0.086466548 0.240770602 0.5524875 1.90
## 12 3600 0.083044453 0.246534209 0.5524875 1.04
## 13 3650 0.079256491 0.251538159 0.5524875 0.00
## 14 3700 0.067631106 0.275499947 0.5524875 0.36
## 15 3750 0.054685814 0.302162680 0.5524875 0.02
## 16 3800 0.056976711 0.214063576 0.5524875 0.00
## 17 3850 0.051602863 0.228752154 0.5524875 0.00
## 18 3900 0.039628205 0.215398897 0.5524875 0.00
## 19 3950 0.031508932 0.140657882 0.5524875 0.00
## 20 4000 0.027173504 0.141423918 0.5524875 0.00
## 21 4050 0.027255637 0.202031563 0.5524875 0.00
## 22 4100 0.029648725 0.220653356 0.5524875 0.00
## 23 4150 0.033925231 0.148148300 0.5524875 0.00
## 24 4200 0.039132116 0.154931912 0.6582183 0.00
## 25 4250 0.041154140 0.126431788 0.6582183 0.00
## 26 4300 0.041522473 0.112615712 0.6582183 0.00
## 27 4350 0.041450995 0.087794472 0.6582183 0.00
## 28 4400 0.040868299 0.122513325 0.6582183 1.14
## 29 4450 0.049577228 0.141062476 0.6582183 2.82
## 30 4500 0.045708064 0.145163541 0.6582183 3.68
## 31 4550 0.051364376 0.128273642 0.6582183 4.56
## 32 4600 0.053219479 0.176169459 0.6582183 5.04
## 33 4650 0.063089590 0.232560870 0.6582183 7.38
## 34 4700 0.062966055 0.240455540 0.6582183 9.98
## 35 4750 0.063906897 0.304712832 0.5858036 4.32
## 36 4800 0.060668706 0.299462802 0.5858036 3.18
## 37 4850 0.070734298 0.269143447 0.5858036 1.52
## 38 4900 0.061940376 0.283473503 0.5858036 1.76
## 39 4950 0.061840906 0.260374216 0.5858036 3.70
## 40 5000 0.048085633 0.227507896 0.5858036 3.64
## 41 5050 0.041661667 0.197560355 0.5858036 4.08
## 42 5100 0.036659123 0.135159729 0.5858036 6.32
## 43 5150 0.036252694 0.111661900 0.5858036 1.54
## 44 5200 0.038626613 0.106474553 0.5858036 0.44
## 45 5250 0.038011881 0.066037589 0.5858036 0.24
## 46 5300 0.036061853 0.148150601 0.5858036 1.00
## 47 5350 0.044172607 0.252045559 0.5858036 1.62
## 48 5400 0.039789429 0.218854660 0.5858036 0.12
## 49 5450 0.041097990 0.101743462 0.5858036 1.24
## 50 5500 0.050443184 0.049206510 0.4712444 3.26
## 51 5550 0.047927229 0.118121328 0.4712444 2.86
## 52 5600 0.065738448 0.119418131 0.4712444 2.02
## 53 5650 0.069992361 0.142334032 0.4712444 2.48
## 54 5700 0.066124322 0.125863453 0.4712444 0.12
## 55 5750 0.068238904 0.070361025 0.4712444 2.00
## 56 5800 0.070823199 -0.001876524 0.4712444 5.04
## 57 5850 0.069055479 -0.005537506 0.4712444 0.78
## 58 5900 0.066352719 0.024292896 0.4712444 0.00
## 59 5950 0.059217177 0.099740737 0.4712444 0.00
## 60 6000 0.054011583 0.074216521 0.4712444 0.00
## 61 6050 0.047448525 0.102850247 0.4712444 0.00
## 62 6100 0.050931150 0.032218519 0.4712444 0.00
## 63 6150 0.048327174 0.002158157 0.4712444 0.00
## 64 6200 0.048757293 -0.050685052 0.4712444 0.00
## 65 6250 0.049973770 -0.082990987 0.4712444 0.00
## 66 6300 0.046612903 -0.148351822 0.4712444 0.00
## 67 6350 0.030864996 -0.169873195 0.4712444 0.00
## 68 6400 0.029696608 -0.217747060 0.4712444 0.00
## 69 6450 0.026986578 -0.252535632 0.4712444 0.00
## 70 6500 0.024363059 -0.229672251 0.2740693 0.00
## 71 6550 0.020120908 -0.254545594 0.2740693 0.00
## 72 6600 0.017377696 -0.275154304 0.2740693 0.00
## 73 6650 0.013428797 -0.295576295 0.2740693 0.00
## 74 6700 0.010793309 -0.339686062 0.2740693 0.00
## 75 6750 0.010069610 -0.335459548 0.2740693 0.00
## 76 6800 0.008092049 -0.331121741 0.2740693 0.00
## 77 6850 0.006905459 -0.307124230 0.2740693 0.00
## 78 6900 0.004728914 -0.379629880 0.2740693 0.00
## 79 6950 0.003444082 -0.481231197 0.2740693 0.00
## 80 7000 0.002725530 -0.572219988 0.2630362 0.00
## 81 7050 0.002769597 -0.584561859 0.2630362 0.00
## 82 7100 0.002822575 -0.558309763 0.2630362 0.00
## 83 7150 0.002955175 -0.550253177 0.2630362 0.00
## 84 7200 0.003835058 -0.595948653 0.2630362 0.00
## 85 7250 0.003977789 -0.620649756 0.2630362 0.00
## 86 7300 0.005880774 -0.669118051 0.2630362 0.00
## 87 7350 0.009411231 -0.708101976 0.2630362 0.00
## 88 7400 0.009024750 -0.730095356 0.2630362 0.00
## 89 7450 0.009956543 -0.764593725 0.2630362 0.00
## 90 7500 0.010598909 -0.714226091 0.2630362 0.00
## 91 7550 0.010446669 -0.703030375 0.2630362 0.00
## 92 7600 0.004991715 -0.689720794 0.2630362 0.00
## 93 7650 0.004557871 -0.708806053 0.2630362 0.00
## 94 7700 0.011493922 -0.734169663 0.2630362 0.00
## 95 7750 0.011148106 -0.753663803 0.2630362 0.00
## 96 7800 0.008221919 -0.817119776 0.2630362 0.00
## 97 7850 0.005961681 -0.846477926 0.2630362 0.00
## 98 7900 0.005158777 -0.838409684 0.2630362 0.00
## 99 7950 0.003657409 -0.814292379 0.2630362 0.00We might like to store the result for the actual analysis:
write.csv(all_proxies, file = normalizePath(
file.path(here(), "data","preprocessed_data", "all_proxies.csv"
),
mustWork = F)
)Transforming the Data
If the data has already been created in a previous run, we can also reload it directly at this point:
all_proxies <- read.csv(file = normalizePath(
file.path(here(), "data","preprocessed_data", "all_proxies.csv")
),
row.names = 1)First we reverse the order of the data so that it is sorted from oldest to youngest:
all_proxies <- all_proxies %>% arrange(desc(age))Since the data influence the model in their respective change from the state t -> t-1, we first normalise them by a z-transformation, and then calculate the individual difference to the predecessor. The first row is set to 0.
all_proxies[,2:5] <- all_proxies[,2:5] %>% scale() %>% diff() %>% rbind(0,.)Furthermore, it has proven practical, at least in the development phase of the model, to be able to restrict the data set in order to quickly try out responses of the model. Each data point is included in the model as a separate parameter, and it therefore does not scale linearly with the number of data points. It can also be helpful for reproducing the analysis. To do this, we define a reduction factor that determines what proportion of the data is passed to the model and reduce the data set accordingly.
redux_factor <- 1
redux_nrow <- round(nrow(all_proxies) * redux_factor)
redux_seq <- round(seq(from=1,to=nrow(all_proxies), length.out = redux_nrow))
model_data <- all_proxies[redux_seq,]Furthermore, the model contains two constraints for the maximum growth rate. These help to speed up convergence. They are given as data and must be set to 1 for the constraint to be processed.
model_data$constraint_lambda_lower <- 1
model_data$constraint_lambda_upper <- 1The Model
The actual model consists of a nimble code block that describes the relationships and sets the priors for the parameters:
model_code <- nimbleCode( {
# ---- Process Model ----
# Estimate the initial state vector of population abundances
nEnd ~ dnorm(nSites[nYears] * MeanSiteSize / AreaSwissPlateau, sd=0.5)
# Autoregressive process for remaining years
for(t in 2:(nYears)) {
# The actual number of sites per year
nSites[t] ~ dpois(lambda[t])
# limiting the change to a maximum value, estimated in the model
constraint_lambda_lower[t] ~ dconstraint(
nSites[t]/nSites[t-1] < (max_growth_rate + 1)
)
constraint_lambda_upper[t] ~ dconstraint(
nSites[t-1]/nSites[t] < (max_growth_rate + 1)
)
}
# ---- Observational Model ----
# For all but the first year
for(t in 2:(nYears)) {
# lambda depends on the number of sites at the previous year, plus
# changes in relation to the proxies
log(lambda[t]) <- log(nSites[t-1]) + (
p[1] * sumcal[t] +
p[2] * openness[t] +
p[3] * aoristic_sum[t] +
p[4] * dendro[t]
)
}
# ---- Priors ----
# Relevance of the proxies is estimated as Dirichlet distribution
p[1:4] ~ ddirch(alpha[1:4])
# The parameters for the Dirichlet distribution have a weakly informative prior
for(j in 1:4) {
alpha[j] ~ dlnorm(mu_alpha[j],sdlog=a_alpha[j])
a_alpha[j] ~ dexp(1)
mu_alpha[j] ~ dlnorm(1,sdlog=0.1)
}
# The maximum growth rate has a prior gamma distributed between 0 and 1
# by adding 1 in the process model, this becomes 1-2[
max_growth_rate ~ dgamma(shape = 5, scale=0.05)
# The mean site size
MeanSiteSize ~ dpois(50)
# ---- transformed data ----
# Population density and total population as function of site number
PopDens[1:(nYears)] <- PopTotal[1:(nYears)] / AreaSwissPlateau
PopTotal[1:nYears] <- nSites[1:nYears] * MeanSiteSize
})Run Preparation
A few things still need to be specified for the model: constants and initial values. Let’s start with the constants:
model_constants <- list(
# an estimation for the population density at the end of the modeled period
nEnd = 5,
# the number of time slices
nYears = redux_nrow,
# the area of the swiss plateau for the transformation
# of population density to Total Population
AreaSwissPlateau = 12649
)Finally, it helps for convergence to give meaningful starting values for the chains:
# Calculation of an exponential increase of the factor 10
r <- log(1 - (10^(1/model_constants$nYears) - 1))
model_inits <- list(
lambda = rep(r,redux_nrow),
PopDens = rep(model_constants$nEnd,redux_nrow),
nSites = rep(50,redux_nrow)
)Furthermore, we set the parameters for the runs until convergence:
batches <- 100000 # run in batches of this length
thinning <- 10 # save only each ... of the chainsFinally, we have to define which parameters (apart from the top-level stochastic nodes of the model) are to be observed and stored. We also include the population density as a core parameter and the relative proportion of proxies p:
model_monitors <- c("PopDens", "p")Parallelisation
The model runs significantly faster if we use multiple cores in
parallel. Nimble itself does not have an option for parallelisation, so
we use functions provided by the package do_parallel for
this. The computer used for the analysis has 4 cores, you may need to
adjust these values for your computer.
# Spare 4 cores from the calculation
ncore <- detectCores() - 4
ncore <- max(ncore, 1)
# Register the cluster
cl <- makeCluster(ncore)
registerDoParallel(cl)
# Export common values for the cluster
clusterExport(cl,
c("model_code",
"model_inits",
"model_data",
"model_constants",
"model_monitors",
"batches",
"thinning"
)
)
# Set random seeds
for (j in seq_along(cl)) {
set.seed(j)
}First batch
In the first run, the clusters are set up and the models are instantiated and started within the clusters.
start_time <- Sys.time()
mcmcSamples <- clusterEvalQ(cl, {
# Load necessary libraries
library(nimble)
library(coda)
# initiate the model with the parameters and dates
model <- nimbleModel(code=model_code,
data=model_data,
constants = model_constants,
inits = model_inits)
# Compile the model
Cmodel <- compileNimble(model)
# Configure the model
modelConf <- configureMCMC(model, thin = thinning)
# Add the monitor(s)
modelConf$addMonitors(model_monitors)
# Build the mcmc
modelMCMC <- buildMCMC(modelConf)
# Compile the final model
CmodelMCMC <- compileNimble(modelMCMC, project = model)
# Run the model for the number of iterations specified in batches
CmodelMCMC$run(batches, reset = FALSE)
return(as.mcmc(as.matrix(CmodelMCMC$mvSamples)))
})
end_time <- Sys.time()
end_time - start_time## Time difference of 58.40906 secsAt the end of the 1st run, the model is instantiated in the individual cluster partitions, possibly already converged. But we now check the convergence in continued runs.
# Initialize with non-convergence
converged <- F
# minimum psrf until the model is considered converged
min_convergence <- 1.1
start_time <- Sys.time()
# As long as not converged
while (!converged) {
# run the model for another batch, with resetting the values (burn-in)
mcmcSamples <- clusterEvalQ(cl, {
CmodelMCMC$run(batches, reset = FALSE, resetMV = TRUE)
return(as.mcmc(as.matrix(CmodelMCMC$mvSamples)))
})
# convert the resulting list to an mcmc.list object
mcmcSamples <- as.mcmc.list(mcmcSamples)
# Check the psrf values from the Gelman and Rubin's convergence diagnostic
gelman <- gelman.diag(mcmcSamples, multivariate = F)
psrf <- gelman$psrf[,1]
# The model is considered converged when
# all psrf are lower than the minimum convergence criterion
converged <- all(psrf<min_convergence, na.rm=T)
# optional: create an mcmc traceplot for visual inspection
#MCMCtrace(window(mcmcSamples, start = (batches/thinning)-min((batches/thinning),5000)), params = "PopDens", pdf = F)
}
end_time <- Sys.time()
end_time - start_time## Time difference of 35.15003 secsOnce the model has converged, we can look at the result of estimating the population density based on the number of settlements. For this we extract the mean and 95% highest posterior density interval:
result <- MCMCsummary(mcmcSamples, HPD = T, params = "PopDens")
plotmax <- max(result$`95%_HPDU`)
plot(1950-model_data$age, result$mean, type="l", ylim = c(0,plotmax))
lines(1950-model_data$age, result$`95%_HPDL`, lty=2)
lines(1950-model_data$age, result$`95%_HPDU`, lty=2)
This converged run is sufficient to check some initial parameter values. For example, we can see how the proportional importance of the proxies is distributed:
MCMCchains(mcmcSamples, params = "p") %>%
as.data.frame %>%
rename(sumcal = 'p[1]', openness = 'p[2]', aorist = 'p[3]', dendro = 'p[4]') %>%
pivot_longer(everything()) %>%
ggplot(aes(x = value, y = name)) + stat_halfeye()
The model trusts mainly the openness index, the aoristic sum and the dendro data play a subordinate role. The sum calibration has a higher weight. However, the shape of the distributions also indicates that we may have too few effective samples to make a reliable statement about the highest posterior density intervals. Let’s take a look at the effective samples:
MCMCsummary(mcmcSamples) %>%
as.data.frame() %>%
rownames_to_column() %>%
ggplot() + geom_bar(aes(y=n.eff, x=rowname), stat = "identity") + coord_flip()
Very few parameters have already reached the effective sample size of 10000 suggested for a reliable estimate. Therefore, we extend the run until this number is reached.
Finale Run after Convergence
The final run after convergence to get more than the min 10000 effective samples for each parameter takes quite some time. On my machine, it took nearly 5 hours. Therefore, I add a switch here for not doing this analysis, but feel free to proceed yourself, if you like:
do_final_run = FFirst we set our new meta-parameters:
# Starting with not enough samples
enough_samples <- F
# We want at least 10000 effective samples
min_eff_samples <- 10000
# We prolongue the batches for more time efficient sampling
sample_batches <- 1000000Then we export the new batch length to the clusters:
clusterExport(cl, c("sample_batches"))In order to work memory-efficiently (the model can need a lot of memory quickly!), we only allow the current samples to be used within the cluster instances and collect them outside the clusters in a variable:
start_time <- Sys.time()
while (!enough_samples & do_final_run) {
gc(verbose=F) # Garbage collector for more RAM
# Start sampling
mcmcSamples <- clusterEvalQ(cl, {
CmodelMCMC$run(sample_batches, reset = FALSE, resetMV = TRUE)
return(as.mcmc(as.matrix(CmodelMCMC$mvSamples)))
})
mcmcSamples <- as.mcmc.list(mcmcSamples)
# create or append values to a collector variable
if(!exists("collector")){
collector <- mcmcSamples
} else {
collector <- append_chains(collector, mcmcSamples)
}
# calculate effective sample size iteratively over the chains
# and then sum the individual values
# more RAM efficient than the `MCMCsummary` implementation
mcmcsummary <- lapply(collector, effectiveSize)
ness <- Reduce(`+`, mcmcsummary)
# we have enough samples, when all parameters have more than the minimum ESS
enough_samples <- all(ness > min_eff_samples)
# just in case: store the result in a RDS file for later inspection
saveRDS(collector, file = "mcmc_collector.RDS")
}
end_time <- Sys.time()
end_time - start_time## Time difference of 0.01296329 secsWhen the model has finished running, we should stop the clusters:
stopCluster(cl)If the final run above was skipped, but you have already the results from a previous run, you can load this at this stage:
collector <- readRDS("mcmc_collector.RDS")For comparison with the priors, we simulate from these, first for p:
n_prior <- 100000
a_alpha <- mu_alpha <- alpha <- list()
for(j in 1:4) {
a_alpha[[j]] <- rexp(n_prior, 1)
mu_alpha[[j]] <- rlnorm(n_prior, 1,sdlog=0.1)
alpha[[j]] <- rlnorm(n_prior, mu_alpha[[j]],sdlog=a_alpha[[j]])
}
p_mat <- matrix(ncol = 4, nrow = n_prior)
for(i in 1:n_prior){
p_mat[i,] <- rdirch(1, c(alpha[[1]][i], alpha[[2]][i], alpha[[3]][i], alpha[[4]][i]))
}
MCMCtrace(collector, params = "p", priors = p_mat, pdf = F, ind = T, Rhat = T)## Warning in MCMCtrace(collector, params = "p", priors = p_mat, pdf = F, ind =
## T, : Number of samples in prior is greater than number of total or specified
## iterations (for all chains) for specified parameter. Only last 20000 iterations
## will be used.
And then for lambda and nSites (respectively derived for PopDens):
nSites <- matrix(ncol = model_constants$nYears, nrow = n_prior)
MeanSiteSize <- rpois(n_prior, 50)
nEnd <- rnorm(n_prior, model_constants$nEnd, sd=0.5)
nSites[,model_constants$nYears] <- rpois(n_prior,nEnd / MeanSiteSize * model_constants$AreaSwissPlateau)
for(i in (model_constants$nYears-1):1) {
nSites[,i] <- rpois(n_prior, nSites[,i+1])
}
PopDens <- nSites * MeanSiteSize / model_constants$AreaSwissPlateau
MCMCtrace(collector, params = "PopDens", priors = PopDens, pdf = F, ind = T, Rhat = T)## Warning in MCMCtrace(collector, params = "PopDens", priors = PopDens, pdf =
## F, : Number of samples in prior is greater than number of total or specified
## iterations (for all chains) for specified parameter. Only last 20000 iterations
## will be used.
gc(verbose=F)## used (Mb) gc trigger (Mb) max used (Mb)
## Ncells 5255263 280.7 8869357 473.7 8869357 473.7
## Vcells 849683411 6482.6 4523061061 34508.3 5653821329 43135.3Finally, we can plot the result in comparison to the input data, superimposing them (scaled) on the estimation result in their original form rather than as difference data:
# MCMCvis methods are rather memory intensive. We implement the summary from scratch
all_chains <- as.matrix(collector)
rm(collector)
gc(verbose=F)## used (Mb) gc trigger (Mb) max used (Mb)
## Ncells 5104172 272.6 8869357 473.7 8869357 473.7
## Vcells 844631769 6444.1 3618448849 27606.6 5653821329 43135.3params <- colnames(all_chains)
this_mcmc_summary <- data.frame()
for(this_column in colnames(all_chains)) {
this_mcmc_summary[this_column, "mean"] <- mean(all_chains[,this_column])
hdpi_i <- coda::HPDinterval(as.mcmc(all_chains[,this_column]))
this_mcmc_summary[this_column, "hpdi_l"] <- hdpi_i[1]
this_mcmc_summary[this_column, "hpdi_u"] <- hdpi_i[2]
}
gc(verbose=F)## used (Mb) gc trigger (Mb) max used (Mb)
## Ncells 5104249 272.6 8869357 473.7 8869357 473.7
## Vcells 844632294 6444.1 2894759080 22085.3 5653821329 43135.3PopDens_summary <- this_mcmc_summary[grep("^PopDens", params),]
all_proxies_orig <- read.csv(file = normalizePath(file.path(here(), "data","preprocessed_data", "all_proxies.csv")), row.names = 1)
ggplot(all_proxies_orig) +
geom_line(aes(x = 1950-age, y = scale(openness), col="Openness Indicator"), alpha = 0.5) +
geom_line(aes(x = 1950-age, y = scale(sumcal), col="Sum Calibration"), alpha = 0.5) +
geom_line(aes(x = 1950-age, y = scale(dendro), col="Dendro Dated Settlements"), alpha = 0.5) +
geom_line(aes(x = 1950-age, y = scale(aoristic_sum), col="Aoristic Sum"), alpha = 0.5) +
geom_line(data = PopDens_summary,
aes(x = rev(1950-all_proxies_orig$age), y=mean, col = "Estimation Result")) +
geom_line(data = PopDens_summary,
aes(x = rev(1950-all_proxies_orig$age), y=hpdi_l, col = "Estimation Result"), lty=2) +
geom_line(data = PopDens_summary,
aes(x = rev(1950-all_proxies_orig$age), y=hpdi_u, col = "Estimation Result"), lty=2) +
theme_minimal() +
scale_colour_manual(
values = c("Openness" = "darkgreen",
"Sum Calibration" = "red",
"Aoristic Sum" = "gray",
"Dendro Dated Settlements" = "brown",
"Estimation" = "black"), name = "") +
theme(legend.position="bottom") +
ylab("Scaled values for Proxies,\n P/km² for Estimation") +
xlab("cal BCE")
And finally, the final estimate of the influence of the different proxies on the result:
all_chains[,grep("^p\\[", params)] %>%
as.data.frame %>%
rename(sumcal = 'p[1]', openness = 'p[2]', aorist = 'p[3]', dendro = 'p[4]') %>%
pivot_longer(everything()) %>%
ggplot(aes(x = value, y = name)) +
stat_halfeye()